Information Diffusion, Transaction Costs, and the Performance of Technical Trading Rules in the Emerging Stock Markets of China

Abstract

We examine the performance of technical trading rules in the emerging Chinese stock markets. After controlling for non-synchronous trading and transaction costs, we find significant evidence to support the predictability and profitability of technical rules for Chinese foreign B-shares but not for domestic A-shares. The index returns of B-shares can be explained by one-day-lagged own market trading signals, but not by the trading signals emitted from the corresponding A-share market or from the U.S. market (a proxy for the international market). However, after February 19, 2001, when domestic investors were allowed to trade B-shares, the predictive power of the trading rules in B-share markets disappeared. We conclude that the predictability of technical trading rules in B-share markets can be attributed to the gradual diffusion of information among foreign investors under the foreign share ownership restriction, and, partly, to positive autocorrelations induced by thin trading.