Information and Communication Technology and Ethnic Conflict in Myanmar: Organizing for Violence or Peace?

Abstract

ObjectiveIn a country as historically conflict ridden as Myanmar, will the reduced communication costs yielded by the recent expansion of mobile telephony create political affordances that make collective organization for peace or violence more likely to prevail?MethodApplying a random effects model of time‐series cross‐sectional data, we test the relationship shared by ethnic groups’ increasing access to mobile telephony and their incidence of violent conflict against the state. By comparing differences in the effect across two distinct periods of time—before and after mobile phones became widely available—we can conduct robust tests of this relationship.ResultsThe results of the analysis offer only marginal support for the prediction that increased access to mobile phones amplified groups’ incidence of violence against the state. More often, the direction of the effect traveled in the opposite direction, suggesting that the spread of mobile phones possibly served as a pacifying force for certain ethnic groups.ConclusionsWithin the context of Myanmar, the expansion of mobile telephony has not encouraged greater violence and may instead serve as a pacifying force.