Information-Adaptive Clinical Trials: A Selective Recruitment Design

Abstract

Summary We propose a novel adaptive design for clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes and covariates (which may consist of or include biomarkers). Our method is based on the expected entropy of the posterior distribution of a proportional hazards model. The expected entropy is evaluated as a function of a patient’s covariates, and the information gained due to a patient is defined as the decrease in the corresponding entropy. Candidate patients are only recruited onto the trial if they are likely to provide sufficient information. Patients with covariates that are deemed uninformative are filtered out. A special case is where all patients are recruited, and we determine the optimal treatment arm allocation. This adaptive design has the advantage of potentially elucidating the relationship between covariates, treatments and survival probabilities by using fewer patients, albeit at the cost of rejecting some candidates. We assess the performance of our adaptive design by using data from the German Breast Cancer Study Group and numerical simulations of a biomarker validation trial.