Information Acceleration: Validation and Lessons from the Field

Abstract

There is strong management interest in the use of multimedia stimuli to gather data with which to forecast consumer response to really new products. These vivid methods have high face validity and are attractive to top management, but they have only begun to be tested for validity. The authors evaluate one virtual representation called information acceleration (IA) that has been applied eight times to consumer and business-to-business products. They report on three tests of validity—two internal and one external. The first internal test compares the ability of IA to represent a physical automobile showroom and salesperson. The second internal test compares the ability of IA to represent the interpersonal interaction of a medical technician with a physician when evaluating a new medical instrument. The external test compares forecasts, made in 1992 for a camera launched in 1993, with actual sales for 1993 and 1994. The authors also compare actual sales to forecasts modified for the actual marketing plan and for an unforeseen negative Consumer Reports article. Using real-world applications of IA as a basis, the authors conclude with a summary of the lessons that have been learned during the past five years.