Abstract
The purpose of this observational study was to evaluate the potential epidemiological trend of arboviral diseases most reported in Italy by the dedicated national surveillance system (ISS data) compared to searches on the internet, assessing whether a correlation/association between users' searches in Google and Wikipedia and real cases exists. The study considers a time interval from June 2012 to December 2023. We used the following Italian search terms: "Virus Toscana", "Virus del Nilo occidentale" (West Nile Virus in English), "Encefalite trasmessa da zecche" (Tick Borne encephalitis in English), and "Dengue". We overlapped Google Trends and Wikipedia data to perform a linear regression and correlation analysis. Statistical analyses were performed using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) or Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho) as appropriate. All the correlations between the ISS data and Wikipedia or GT exhibited statistical significance. The correlations were strong for Dengue GT and ISS (rho = 0.71) and TBE GT and ISS (rho = 0.71), while the remaining correlations had values of r and rho between 0.32 and 0.67, showing a moderate temporal correlation. The observed correlations and regression models provide a foundation for future research, encouraging a more nuanced exploration of the dynamics between digital information-seeking behavior and disease prevalence.
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