Influential factors for failure of enhanced recovery after surgery from hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma and the establishment of risk prediction model

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the influential factors for failure of enhanced recovery after surgery(ERAS) from hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) patients and then to establish a risk prediction model. Methods: The relevant clinical data of 180 patients with HCC undergoing hepatectomy at Department of Hepatic Surgery, Affiliated Provincial Hospital, Anhui Medical University from January 2016 to June 2017 were analyzed retrospectively.There were 149 male patients and 31 female patients aging of (56.5±11.0)years(from 33 to 84 years old). The factors affecting postoperative failure of ERAS of HCC patients were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses, and then, all the obtained factors and their statistical values were used to establish the risk prediction model. Results: A total of 23 patients failed in the ERAS protocol(12.8%). The preoperative total bilirubin (TBIL), alanine aminotransferase(ALT) and amount of intraoperative bleeding were independent risk factors for failure of ERAS from hepatectomy(all P<0.05). The obtained risk prediction model was presented as follows: risk coefficient(R)=0.114×(TBIL)+ 0.082×(ALT)+ 0.008×(amount of intraoperative bleeding). At the cut of value of R=7.90, the area under the ROC curve of this model for predicting failure of ERAS was 0.866(95%CI: 0.788-0.945, P<0.01), with the sensitivity and specificity of 69.6% and 91.1%, respectively.External validation results indicated that the scoring system had good differential ability(area under the ROC curve=0.889, 95%CI: 0.811-0.967, P<0.01). Conclusions: Higher level of preoperative TBIL(>21 μmol/L) and ALT(>50 U/L) and the larger amount of intraoperative bleeding (more than 400 ml) are independent risk factors for failure of ERAS inpatients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC and the established prediction model may have certain value for risk assessment.