Influencing factors on carbon emission in China transport industry based on PVAR model: A supply-demand perspective

Abstract

The control of carbon emission is of great significance to environmental protection. Transport accounts for about 10% of total carbon emissions. Therefore, energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation sector have become critically important. This study takes 30 provinces in China as examples and uses a panel VAR (PVAR) model to study the impact of various factors on carbon emissions from the aspects of supply and demand.In terms of supply, transportation structure, environmental investment, and road density are key factors, and their impacts are dynamic.On the demand side, industrial structure, per capita GDP, and urbanization rate are major influencers. Specifically, urbanization and openness levels drive transportation carbon emissions in the east, per capita GDP in the central region, and industrial structure in the west. This paper will provide concrete and feasible policy suggestions for the characteristic provinces on transportation carbon emission.