Influencing factors of crude oil maritime shipping freight fluctuations: a case of Suezmax tankers in Europe–Africa routes

Abstract

PurposeThe paper aims to identify the contributors to freight rate fluctuations in the Suezmax tanker market; this study selected the refinery output, crude oil price, one-year charter rate and fleet development as the main influencing factors for the market analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used the vector error correction model to evaluate the degree of impact of each influencing factor on Suezmax tanker freight rates, as well as the interplay between these factors.FindingsThe conclusion and results were tested using the 20-year data from 1999 to 2019, and the methodology and theory of this paper were proved to be effective. Results of this study provide effective reference for scholars to find the law of fluctuations in Suezmax tanker freight rates.Originality/valueThis paper provides a decision-making support tool for tanker operators to cope with fluctuation risks in the tanker shipping market.