Influencing factors and forecast of carbon emissions from transportation - Taking Shandong province as an example

Abstract

Under the severe situation of global warming, reducing carbon emissions is an important trend in today’s society. Based on the 2003-2015 Shandong Province transportation energy consumption data, this paper uses the top-down method to calculate the carbon emissions of transportation in Shandong Province.On this basis, the grey relational degree analysis method is used to study the impact of seven factors, namely per capita GDP, total population, energy consumption per unit GDP, private car ownership, tourism income, freight turnover and passenger turnover, on the carbon emissions of transportation in Shandong Province. According to the analysis results, the above influencing factors are closely related to the carbon emissions of transportation in Shandong Province. The impact degree is from large to small: passenger turnover > freight turnover > per capita GDP > total population > energy consumption per unit > tourism income> private car ownership. At the same time, using the gray prediction GM(1,1) model to predict the carbon emissions of transportation in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2021, it is concluded that the carbon emissions of transportation in Shandong Province will continue to grow in the next few years.