Influences of various forcing variables on global energy balance during the period of intensive instrumental observation (1958?1987) and their implications for paleoclimate

Abstract

Consistent, accurate, and numerous measures of global scale atmospheric variables have been collected since about 1958. A time series of 30 years duration was assembled to investigate contributing factors to the global energy balance. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), CO2 changes, and variation in solar energy output account for a quarter or more each of the variability in global energy balance. Upper atmospheric aerosols contribute, but less significantly and in a more complex way. The analysis suggests a hypothesis that has bearing on global climatic stability. Global climate fortuitously passed through a shift from a warmer NH to a warmer SH during the study period. The ENSO appears to act as a hemispheric energy balancing mechanism. There were significant changes in global atmospheric function when the hemispheric energy balance shifted in favor of the Southern Hemisphere about 1966. When applied to past climates, hemispheric dominance of global climate and related patterns of periodic stability could explain the rise and fall of some complex hierarchical social systems.