Influences of the Global Crisis on the Monetary Transmission and Optimum Substitution between the Romanian Leu and Euro

Abstract

The current economic and financial crisis has exerted an increasing impact on the monetary transmission also in the emerging economies. Firstly, this paper aims at highlighting the effects of the turbulences on the Romanian monetary policy framework, on the basis of a theoretical approach. Secondly, the data covering the period January 2008-December 2012 will be used to observe and explain the evolution of the empirical optimum of the monetary substitution between leu and euro. The study case will be based on the Uncovered Interest Parity theory and consider also the cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results will allow identifying the main recent mutations in the monetary transmission and substitution in Romania and their implications in the perspective of euro adoption as well as to compare with results obtained for the neighbour countries.