Influences of parameter uncertainties within the ICRP-66 respiratory tract model: particle clearance.

Abstract

Quantifying radiological risk following the inhalation of radioactive aerosols entails not only an assessment of particle deposition within respiratory tract regions but a full accounting of clearance mechanisms whereby particles may be translocated to adjacent respiratory tissue regions, absorbed to blood, or released to the gastrointestinal tract. The model outlined in ICRP Publication 66 represents to date one of the most complete overall descriptions of particle deposition and clearance, as well as localized radiation dosimetry, within the respiratory tract. In this study, a previous review of the ICRP-66 deposition model is extended to the study of the subsequent clearance model. A systematic review of the clearance component within the ICRP 66 respiratory tract model was conducted in which probability density functions were assigned to all input parameters for both 239PuO2 and 238UO2/238U3O8. These distributions were subsequently incorporated within a computer code LUDUC (Lung Dose Uncertainty Code) in which Latin hypercube sampling techniques are used to generate multiple (e.g., 1,000) sets of input vectors (i.e., trials) for all model parameters needed to assess mechanical clearance and particle dissolution/absorption. Integral numbers of nuclear disintegrations, U(s), in various lung regions were shown to be well-described by lognormal probability distributions. Of the four extrathoracic clearance compartments of the respiratory tract, uncertainties in U(s), expressed as the ratio of its 95% to 5% confidence levels, were highest within the LN(ET) tissues for 239PuO2 (ratio of 50 to 130) and within the ET(seq) tissues for 238UO2/238U3O8 (ratio of 12 to 50). Peak uncertainties in U(s) in these respiratory regions occurred at particle sizes of approximately 0.5-0.6 microm where uncertainties in ET2 particle deposition fractions accounted for only approximately 10% of the total U(s) uncertainty for 239PuO2, and only approximately 30% of the total U(s) uncertainty for 238UO2/238U3O8 (the remainder is attributed to the clearance model alone). Of the eight clearance compartments within the thoracic regions of the respiratory tract, and for particle sizes below approximately 5 microm, uncertainties in U(s) were highest within the LN(TH) tissues for 239PuO2 (ratio of 60 to 80) and within the BB(seq) tissues for 238UO2/238U3O8 (ratio of 20 and 60). At particle sizes exceeding approximately 5 microm in aerodynamic diameter, peak uncertainties in U(s) are noted for the AI, bb(seq), and bb1 clearance compartments. As the particle size approaches 10 microm in size, uncertainties in U(s) within these three thoracic tissue regions approach a factor of 1,000 and are dominated by corresponding uncertainties in particle deposition.