Abstract
The snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) sustains an important bottom trawling fishery in the Sea of Japan. Its response to global warming is attracting the attention of the public. Using a transport and survival model for crab larvae in the Sea of Japan, we examined the spatial-temporal variations of crab spawning and larval settlement in the past (mid-20th century), present (early 21st century), and future (mid- and late 21st century) under the low and high radiative forcing scenarios. It was found that the variations in spawning differed between the regions south of and north of 41.5° N, on both seasonal and long-term scales. Larval settlement in the Sea of Japan was projected to increase in the future, which is mainly attributed to a reduction in mortality due to the low water temperature. Moreover, the aggregating location of the settled megalopae will likely shift northward, with increasing settlement off Hokkaido Island. With additional sensitivity experiments, we confirmed that the change in water temperature has a stronger impact on larval settlement than that in the current field. The change in water temperature controlled both the amount and distribution of crab larval settlement, while a change in current field only affected the distribution to some extent.
Highlights
The snow crab Chionoecetes opilio (C. opilio) is distributed in deep cold waters in the northwest Atlantic Ocean and north Pacific Ocean, including the Sea of Japan
The change in crab spawning and larval settlement as the climate changes is analyzed with help of the survival and transport model
Seasonal variation in spawning was distinct in the Sea of Japan and closely related to sea surface temperature (SST)
Summary
The snow crab Chionoecetes opilio (C. opilio) is distributed in deep cold waters in the northwest Atlantic Ocean and north Pacific Ocean, including the Sea of Japan. It is an important commercial fishery species, in Japan, Alaska, and Atlantic Canada [1,2,3,4,5]. Female crabs molt eleven times in 7–8 years before they are mature and reproductive. As the most important species in the offshore bottom trawling fishery in Japan, the catches of snow crab declined dramatically during the mid- to late 20th century, mainly due to overfishing [9]. Changes in marine environmental conditions, due to climate change, have contributed to the decline [10,11]
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