Influences of climate change on carbon and water fluxes of the ecosystem in the Qinling Mountains of China

Abstract

Climate change is one of the foremost challenges confronting the contemporary world. Carbon and water cycles and their interconnections of ecosystems are playing a pivotal role in assessing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. The Qinling Mountains of China represent a focal area for research on global climate change and regional adaptation strategies. Based on historical and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) future climatic data, the Biome-BGC model, which was sufficiently optimized with the Biome-BGC-PEST package, was used to simulate the historical and future trends of GPP (Gross primary productivity), ET (Evapotranspiration), and WUE (Ecosystem water use efficiency) in the Qinling Mountains, so as to elucidate the dynamics and spatiotemporal variations of carbon and water fluxes amidst climate change. The results showed that the GPP, ET, and WUE of the Qinling Mountains heterogeneously distributed in space, due to the dramatic disparities in carbon and water fluxes among different vegetation types in the Qinling Mountains. Among the various vegetation types, evergreen needle-leaved forest had the highest annual mean value of WUE. In the historical period of 1979-2018, deciduous broad-leaved forest had the highest annual mean value of GPP and ET, while evergreen needle-leaved forest would dominate in the future (2021-2100). For the annual GPP and ET flux variations, different vegetation cover types followed varying peak patterns in the Qinling Mountains. Deciduous broad-leaved forest, evergreen needle-leaved forest, and shrub meadow showed ’single-peak’ pattern annually, whereas the crop area displayed ’double-peak’ pattern due to the different growing seasons of crops. There also were temporal variations for the carbon and water fluxes within the same vegetation type. Future projections suggested a continuous increase in GPP and ET fluxes, underscoring the consistent role of the Qinling Mountains in water resource conservation and carbon sink amid evolving climatic conditions.