Influence operations and other conflict trends

Abstract

Geopolitical competition is increasingly being played out in the Gray Zone – i.e., the space beyond conventional diplomacy and short of war – through the large use, in parts, of cyber operations (CO). At the macro level, this trend seems to be due to the overarching political fragmentation, intensification of international rivalries, costly and complex interdependences, relative imbalance in military power/capabilities, and socio-technological vulnerabilities arising from the past years’ transformations. At the micro and operational-technical level, it seems and is assumed to be due to the relative availability and accessibility of cyber-tools and cyber operation’s apparent operational characteristics, such as their flexibility, customizability, rapidity, scalability, and limited escalation potential. Cyber-enabled influence operation (CIO), meanwhile, suit Gray zone conflicts particularly well, if not better than traditional sabotage and is now widely and tentatively leveraged. Supported by a study of a set of various Gray zone conflicts, it becomes apparent that CO are in some cases a novel, efficient, and effective tool for disruption while an enhancer and transformer of traditional Gray zone activities, such as espionage and influence. Accordingly, it can be reasonably expected that actors operating in the Gray zone will continue using, developing, and investing in CO.