Influence of Winter Subsurface on the Following Summer Variability in Northern California Current System

Abstract

AbstractTemperature variations in the North and tropical Pacific contribute to the predictability of temperatures along the 26.4σ isopycnal layer off the Northern California Current System (N‐CCS). Monthly temperature variations at this depth in the N‐CCS are related to a linear combination of factors, including North Pacific spice anomalies, and the PDO and ENSO climate indices. However, the mechanisms for seasonal predictability of subsurface temperatures, are not well explored. While wind and buoyancy driven deep winter mixing influence subsurface temperatures during the following summer in the deep basin of the North Pacific, a coupled atmosphere‐ocean reanalysis (the CFSR) reveals that winter prior surface temperatures explain only 25% of the summer subsurface temperatures in the N‐CCS. A heat budget of the intermediate layer between a temporally varying mixed layer and the 26.4σ level is diagnosed here to explore the possible role of oceanic advection in explaining the remaining variance. Warmer waters from the south near the coast drive temperature changes in ENSO‐neutral winters, thereby preconditioning temperatures for the following summer. During ENSO winters, isopycnal variations associated with propagating coastal kelvin waves and other sources of heaving, along with anomalous alongshore currents, drive convergence/divergence of the advective fluxes, thereby reducing the local memory of the winter subsurface temperatures. Variations in winter advection could account for almost 36% of the summer subsurface temperature variability in the N‐CCS; this exceeds the portion explained by the heat fluxes associated with deep winter mixing.