Influence of Ukraine invasion by Russia on Turkish markets

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the influence of the Ukraine invasion by Russia on Turkish markets, namely the Istanbul stock market index, Turkish real estate market index, Turkish gold market and Turkish foreign exchange market. This study used daily frequency data between February 24 and June 14, 2022. The variables used are BIST100, Turkey real estate index (XGMYO), Turkish gold commodity (XAU/TRY), Turkish foreign currency such as EURO/TRY, GBP/TRY, USD/TRY, TRY/UAH, TRY/RUB, and macro-economic variable RFR/TRY. The study employed Johansen cointegration, Impulse Response Functions and Markov-regime switching for the analysis. The findings established a long-run co-integration relationship among the Turkish markets. The finding also indicated that the shock from the Ukraine invasion by Russia has a positive effect on developed foreign currencies and a negative effect on currencies from emerging countries such as Turkey. The finding revealed that BIST100, XGMYO, and XAU/TRY shifted to regime 2 during the Ukraine invasion by Russia. The lack of need for more commodities such as wheat, gas and oil from the Turkish market prevented focusing on them, which may attract global attention. Despite this, the significance of this finding remains relevant in Turkey. Therefore, future research may focus on other markets with sufficient trading data for wheat and gas in Russia or Ukraine and any other countries of their study. This study established that Ukraine's invasion by Russia has a worldwide impact on the global markets. The effect is felt globally as a consequence, has been experienced across different developed and emerging markets due to the large market share of Russia on essential commodities such as gas and oil. Turkish foreign exchange markets experienced more storms during the Ukraine invasion by Russia even more than it was during the COVID-19 pandemic.