Influence of the South American Low‐Level Jet on the Austral Summer Precipitation Trend in Southeastern South America

Abstract

AbstractAustral summer precipitation increased by 27% from 1902 to 2020 over southeastern South America (SESA), one of the largest centennial precipitation trends observed globally. We assess the influence of the South American low‐level jet on the SESA precipitation trend by analyzing low‐level moisture fluxes into SESA in two reanalysis datasets from 1951 to 2020. Increased moisture flux through the jet accounts for 20%–45% of the observed SESA precipitation trend. While results vary among reanalyzes, both point to increased humidity as a fundamental driver of increased moisture flux and SESA precipitation. Increased humidity within the jet is consistent with warming sea surface temperatures driven by anthropogenic forcing, although additional natural climate variations also may have played a role. The jet's velocity also increased, further enhancing precipitation, but without a clear connection to anthropogenic forcing. Our findings indicate the SESA precipitation trend is partly attributable to jet intensification arising from both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing.