Abstract

«Podilski Tovtry» is the largest national nature park in Ukraine, covering an area of 261,316 hectares, it stands out among all other parks for its dense population. There are 196 rural settlements, 4 villages and 1 city on the territory of the park. A significant number of them have direct contact with protected objects — botanical reserves, geological and botanical monuments of nature. Anthropogenic pressure is significant, human intervention in the functioning of natural ecosystems is active. This situation is aggravated by the influence of the pyrogenic factor. Fires that occur with constant periodicity can at any moment develop to catastrophic proportions for the diversity of the park’s ecosystems. Research shows that the ecological impact of fires in the national park is complex, and possible changes in the physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil and microclimatic conditions do not provide good prospects for the preservation of flora and fauna, which leads to their loss. In addition, fires directly affect air quality due to the emission of pollutants into the atmosphere as a result of incomplete combustion of biomass. As a result of water and air migration, geological monuments of nature are further transferred to the nearby wetlands and hydroecosystems of the Dniester River, which contributes to their destruction. Based on the calculation of the integral risk, taking into account the weighting factors of the most unfavorable conditions and factors that determine the maximum risk, it was determined that the share of the anthropogenic factor is decisive (65%) in the occurrence of fires in the NNP «PodilskiTovtry». To the greatest extent, it depends on the presence of nearby rural settlements in the absence of a fire monitoring network and distance from fire stations. Taking into account the features of the terrain, the inaccessibility of certain areas of the park, fires can develop rapidly, covering large areas in minutes. On the basis of the conducted research, it is proposed to carry out calculations of the risks of fire occurrence and spread for each individual object of the nature reserve fund, which will become the information basis for the construction of electronic vector maps of the assessment and forecast of the fire hazard of the entire territory of the NNP «PodilskiTovtry».

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