Influence of temporary migration on the transmission of infectious diseases in a migrants' home village

Abstract

The number of temporary migrant workers from rural areas to urban areas in emerging market economies like China has increased dramatically since the early 1980s. Temporary migrant workers have been labeled as the major driving force for the rising incidence of infectious diseases in cities. However, it has not been well recognized that temporary migration indeed may have tremendous impacts on the spread of infectious diseases in migrants' home villages. In this paper, by proposing a delay differential equation model, we provide a framework to study the influence of temporary migration on the transmission of infectious diseases in a migrant workers' home village. The model is shown to admit a unique positive equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable and is globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. This implies that the disease always persists at a constant level. Considering tuberculosis as an example, we explore various disease prevention and control strategies numerically to demonstrate how migration related parameters affect the early outbreak of the disease. We find that a single control strategy, such as reducing the migration time period alone, has little effect on reducing the disease endemic level. For disease prevention and control, temporary migrant workers should be identified as the top target group, and a combination of several prevention strategies should be implemented.