Abstract
Abstract: Insect herbivore disturbances are likely to intensify as a consequence of climate change. In Finland, outbreaks of the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.), which feeds on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) needles, and resulting damage to forests have already increased. Although drivers of sawfly outbreak dynamics have been investigated, the effects of topography and soil fertility have not been fully elucidated. We studied the effect of elevation, slope and soil properties (carbon and nitrogen contents, C/N ratio, pH, texture and horizon thicknesses) on the defoliation intensity of 28 plots (227-531 m2), located in a 34.5 km2 forested area in eastern Finland suffering from an extended outbreak of D. pini. Plot elevation and slope (relative relief 35 m, maximum elevation 200 m a.s.l.) were derived from a digital elevation model and the soil properties from samples of the humus layer (Of+Oh), (Ah+)E and B horizons of podzol profiles. Defoliation was greater on the more fertile and flatter sites than on less fertile and steeper sites, but independent of elevation. The soil property most strongly correlated to plot mean defoliation was the C/N ratio of the humus layer (Spearman’s ρ = -0.68). However, logistic modelling showed that the thickness of the (Ah+)E-horizon had the highest classification accuracy in predicting the probability of a plot having moderate to severe (>20%) defoliation. Our study showed that forest damage caused by D. pini was related to topography and soil fertility. Taking these factors into account could help in understanding the population dynamics of D. pini, in modeling of insect outbreaks and in forest management planning.
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