Abstract
Most waterfowl nesting failure in the prairie biome is attributed to predation. However, the contribution of small mammal abundance to the prairie predator–prey cycle and how this affects waterfowl productivity is not known. We modelled seasonal variability of nesting success, including a number of habitat and nest-related variables, to quantify influence of rodent abundance for prairie nesting waterfowl for six study sites in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada, 1996–1998. We estimated there is a curvilinear relationship between the abundance of meadow voles ( Microtus pennsylvanicus (Ord, 1815)) and the nesting success of ducks. The relationship has characteristics of the alternate prey hypothesis at low vole density and characteristics of the shared prey hypothesis at higher densities. At low vole densities, duck nests appear to be buffered from predation by voles but, at higher densities, nesting success was affected negatively. We recommend that predator–prey dynamics should be included as an integral part of management plans for nesting waterfowl and suggest further research using rigorous experiment design to elucidate mechanisms and pathways responsible for this observed relationship.
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