Abstract
Most General Circulation Models predict more infrequent but larger precipitation events in the eastern United States combined with a warmer climate. This could have a negative effect on maize production. To understand the sensitivity of maize production to future changes in precipitation, we analyzed growing season precipitation and average state maize yields in the eastern United States for the period 1963–2011. Growing season precipitation did not show a strong trend during this period. However, crop yields increased at 3.90% in the southern, 2.62% in the central, and 2.31% in the northern part of the eastern United States, which we attributed to technology and management. To separate technology and management effects from precipitation variability, we corrected maize yields for these yield trends. We then correlated maize yield corrected for advances in technology and management with total growing season precipitation and precipitation in the critical month of pollination, from the regional to state scale. Maize yield - precipitation relationships showed that moisture shortage rather than excess determined maize yield in the Eastern United States. The relationship between total growing season precipitation-maize yield was stronger in the southeastern than in the northeastern U.S., but the critical month precipitation-maize yield relationship was stronger in the northeastern than in the southeastern U.S. If climate model predictions are accurate and total growing season precipitation will not decrease in this region but variability will, it is likely that maize yields in the northeastern U.S. will be more significantly affected.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to affect U.S precipitation quantity and distribution
Studies show that total growing season precipitation affects maize yields the crop is sensitive to drought stress during pollination [27,28]. Though other factors such as population, temperature, fertility level, plant management, and insect, disease, and weed pressures affect maize yield, [29,30], there is no doubt that precipitation is one of the most important factors controlling maize yield
The coefficients of variation of monthly growing season precipitation ranged from 34% to 50% in the eastern U.S during the study period, with the highest CV in New Jersey in Region 3 and Delaware in Region 2, and the lowest in New York in Region 3
Summary
Climate change is expected to affect U.S precipitation quantity and distribution. Circulation Models forecast slightly increased precipitation that will fall during more intense and infrequent events in the eastern United States [1,2,3,4,5]. The trends of climate change are generally increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes of this region where precipitation amount and intensity will very likely increase in the winter and spring. Evapotranspiration is expected to increase as temperature increases, especially at low latitudes of the eastern U.S [6,7]. The changing precipitation patterns are likely to affect crop yields depending on when the crop is grown (winter vs summer), crop water requirements, critical periods of water stress, and the crop’s ability to withstand water stress.
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