Influence of positional accuracy, sample size and scale on modelling species distributions: a review

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an important tool in biogeography and ecology and are widely used for both fundamental and applied research purposes. SDMs require spatially explicit information about species occurrence and environmental covariates to produce a set of rules that identify and scale the environmental space where the species was observed and that can further be used to predict the suitability of a site for the species. More spatially accurate data are increasingly available, and the number of publications on the influence of spatial inaccuracies on the performance of modelling procedures is growing exponentially. Three main sources of uncertainty are associated with the three elements of a predictive function: the dependent variable, the explanatory variables and the algorithm or function used to relate these two variables. In this study, we review how spatial uncertainties influence model accuracy and we propose some methodological issues in the application of SDMs with regard to the modelling of fundamental and realized niches of species. We distinguish two cases suitable for different types of spatial data accuracy. For modelling the realized distribution of a species, particularly for management and conservation purposes, we suggest using only accurate species occurrence data and large sample sizes. Appropriate data filtering and examination of the spatial autocorrelation in predictors should be a routine procedure to minimize the possible influence of positional uncertainty in species occurrence data. However, if the data are sparse, models of the potential distribution of species can be created using a relatively small sample size, and this can provide a generalized indication of the main regional drivers of the distribution patterns. By this means, field surveys can be targeted to discover unknown populations and species in poorly surveyed regions in order to improve the robustness of the data for later modelling of the realized distributions. Based on this review, we conclude that (1) with data that are currently available, studies performed at a resolution of 1–100 km2 are useful for hypothesizing about the environmental conditions that limit the distribution of a species and (2) incorporating coarse resolution species occurrence data in a model, despite an increase in sample size, lowers model performance.