Influence of population mobility on electricity consumption in seven U.S. cities during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption in seven U.S. cities. A high-level analysis reveals that reductions in electricity consumption were mostly short-term, mainly when lockdowns were first introduced. Bayesian structural time series modeling was used to decompose electricity consumption into multiple tailored components to better understand the pandemic's impact. We find that models incorporating population mobility achieved high accuracy rates using pre-pandemic data and even better rates using post-pandemic data. Electricity usage dropped during the first six weeks of the pandemic in all but one of the cities studied.