Influence of Pacific meridional mode on ENSO evolution and predictability: asymmetric modulation and ocean preconditioning

Abstract

<p>This study investigates the mechanisms for the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) to influence the development of an ENSO event and its seasonal predictability. To examine the relative importance of several factors that might modulate the efficiency of the PMM influence, we conduct a series of prediction experiments to selected ENSO events with different intensity from a long simulation of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Using the same coupled model, each of the ensemble prediction is conducted from slightly different ocean initial states but under a common prescribed PMM surface heat flux forcing. In general, the matched PMM forcing to ENSO, i.e., a positive (negative) PMM prior to an El Niño (a La Niña), plays an enhancing role while a mismatched PMM forcing plays a damping role. For the matched PMM-ENSO events, the positive PMM exerts greater influence than its negative counterpart does, with stronger enhancement of positive PMM events on an El Niño than that of negative PMM events on a La Niña. This asymmetry in ENSO influence largely originates from the intensity asymmetry between the positive and negative PMM events in the tropics, which can be explained by the nonlinearity in the growth and equatorward propagation of the PMM-related SST and surface zonal wind anomalies through both wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback and summer deep convection (SDC) response. Furthermore, the response of ENSO to an imposed PMM forcing is modulated by the preconditioning of the upper ocean heat content, which provides the memory for the coupled low-frequency evolution in the tropical Pacific.</p>