Influence of Northern Hemispheric Winter Warming on the Pacific Storm Track

Abstract

Effect of global warming on the sub-seasonal variability of the Northern Hemispheric winter (NDJFM) Pacific storm-track (PST) activity has been investigated. Previous studies showed that the winter-averaged PST has shifted northward and intensified, which was explained in terms of energy exchange with the mean field. Effect of global warming exhibits spatio-temporal heterogeneity with predominance over the Arctic region and in the winter season. Therefore, seasonal averaging may hide important features on sub-seasonal scales. In this study, distinct sub-seasonal response in storm track activities to winter Northern Hemispheric warming is analyzed applying cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis to ERA5 data. The key findings are as follows. Change in the PST is not uniform throughout the winter; the PST shifts northward in early winter (NDJ) and intensifies in late winter (FM). In early winter, the combined effect of weakened baroclinic process to the south of the climatological PST and weakened barotropic damping to the north is responsible for the northward shift. In late winter, both processes contribute to the amplification of the PST. Further, change in baroclinic energy conversion is quantitatively dominated by eddy heat flux, whereas axial tilting of eddies is primarily responsible for change in barotropic energy conversion. A close relationship between anomalous eddy heat flux and anomalous boundary heating, which is largely determined by surface turbulent heat flux, is also demonstrated.