Influence of Natural External Forcings on Interdecadal Variation of Global Land Monsoon over the Last Millennium in CESM-LME

Abstract

Abstract Interdecadal variations of the global land monsoon have been previously attributed to internal fluctuations of the climate system, but the role of natural external forcings was underexplored. Here, we investigate this issue by using the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations over the last millennium (LM) (AD 950–1850). Our analysis reveals that the surface temperature, with two dominant structures (global cooling/warming and longitudinal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific, which affects the Walker circulation), predominantly shapes the leading forced mode of the global land monsoon. This mode, representing 19% of the total variance, manifests as consistent features across South Asia, the southern part of East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa, contrasting with other monsoon regions. Under global cooling conditions, the monsoon intensity is enhanced in the northern parts of the East Asian and eastern parts of the North and South African monsoons, but it decreases in the other monsoon regions. Under weak Walker circulation conditions, changes in atmospheric circulation in response to the sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific are associated with a substantial attenuation of almost all land monsoon regions. It was further shown that the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient jointly account for 75% of the total variance in the leading mode of the global land monsoon, with 29% and 46% as their respective contributions. Furthermore, our results suggest that volcanic eruptions are the dominant external forcing for these variations. These findings provide valuable insights for future research on global monsoon dynamics. Significance Statement Our study using the Community Earth System Model reveals that surface temperature significantly impacts decadal global land monsoon (GLM) variations during the last millennium. Two key factors in relation to global-scale cooling/warming and changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient affect the GLM’s leading forced mode. The leading forced GLM features remain consistent across regions like South Asia, southern East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa. Under global cooling, monsoon intensities in most land monsoon regions are enhanced, while they are reduced in northern East Asian land monsoon regions. In contrast, weak tropical Pacific temperature gradient conditions cause a decrease in intensities in almost all land monsoon regions. Additionally, the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient account for 75% of the total variance in the leading forced GLM variations, contributing 29% and 46%, respectively. Notably, volcanic eruptions emerge as the key external factor influencing these variations.