Influence of measurement errors on temperature-based death time determination

Abstract

Temperature-based methods represent essential tools in forensic death time determination. Empirical double exponential models have gained wide acceptance because they are highly flexible and simple to handle. The most established model commonly used in forensic practice was developed by Henssge. It contains three independent variables: the body mass, the environmental temperature, and the initial body core temperature. The present study investigates the influence of variations in the input data (environmental temperature, initial body core temperature, core temperature, time) on the standard deviation of the model-based estimates of the time since death. Two different approaches were used for calculating the standard deviation: the law of error propagation and the Monte Carlo method. Errors in environmental temperature measurements as well as deviations of the initial rectal temperature were identified as major sources of inaccuracies in model based death time estimation.