Influence of Madden–Julian Oscillation on extreme rainfall events in Spring in southern Uruguay

Abstract

AbstractThe influence of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the dynamics of extreme rainfall events during austral Spring in Uruguay is investigated. The research is focused on the southern region of the country, which includes 15 weather stations. Extreme events are defined as days in which accumulated rainfall exceeds the 90 percentile of rainy days, and MJO is classified according to the Real‐time Multivariate MJO series 1 (RMM1) and 2 (RMM2) indices. Given that the extratropical teleconnections associated with MJO take at least 1 week to set up, we explore the influence of MJO up to 11 days prior to extreme events. A nonlinear time series analysis is performed (using symbolic patterns known as ordinal patterns) in order to consider the effects of the persistence of particular phases of MJO on the dynamic of extreme rainfall events. We find that MJO has the highest influence on extreme rainfall events in the region when it shows a persistence in phases 4 and 5 for more than 5 days, which intensifies the polar jet, influencing the trajectories of the transient waves that propagate in high latitudes, favouring geopotential disturbances over Uruguay. In other cases, the atmospheric pattern that leads to extreme rainfall events is characterized by a blocking episode that prevents transient activity from high latitudes to reach Uruguay, and the disturbances associated with the extreme events propagate along the subtropics.