Influence of Lived Experiences on Public Responses to Future Diseases via (De)Sensitization of Concern.

Abstract

Public responses to a future novel disease might be influenced by a subset of individuals who are either sensitized or desensitized to concern-generating processes through their lived experiences during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Such influences may be critical for shaping public health messaging during the next emerging threat. This study explored the potential outcomes of the influence of lived experiences by using a dynamic multiplex network model to simulate a COVID-19 outbreak in a population of 2000 individuals, connected by means of disease and communication layers. Then a new disease was introduced, and a subset of individuals (50% or 100% of hospitalized during the COVID-19 outbreak) was assumed to be either sensitized or desensitized to concern-generating processes relative to the general population, which alters their adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing). Altered perceptions and behaviors from lived experiences with COVID-19 did not necessarily result in a strong mitigating effect for the novel outbreak. When public disease response is already strong or sensitization is assumed to be a robust effect, then a sensitized subset may enhance public mitigation of an outbreak through social distancing. In preparing for future outbreaks, assuming an experienced and disease-aware public may compromise effective design of effective public health messaging and mitigative action.