Abstract
BackgroundThe life history strategy of a species can influence how populations of that species respond to environmental variation. In this study, we used a matrix modeling approach to examine how life history differences among sympatric rock and white-tailed ptarmigan affect the influence of demographic rates on population growth (λ) and the potential response to a changing climate. Rock ptarmigan have a slower life history strategy than white-tailed ptarmigan in the study region with lower annual reproductive effort but higher adult survival.ResultsBased on data from a 5-year field study, deterministic estimates of λ indicated that populations were stable for rock ptarmigan (λ = 1.01), but declining for white-tailed ptarmigan (λ = 0.96). The demographic rates with the highest elasticity for rock ptarmigan were the survival of after-second year females, followed by juvenile survival and success of the first nest. For white-tailed ptarmigan, juvenile survival had the highest elasticity followed by success of the first nest and survival of second-year females. Incorporating stochasticity into the demographic rates led to a 2 and 4% drop in λ for rock and white-tailed ptarmigan respectively. Using data from the first three years we also found that population growth rates of both species were depressed following an increased frequency of severe years, but less so for rock ptarmigan which showed greater resilience under these conditions.ConclusionsOur results provide evidence that populations of closely related species can vary in their response to environmental change as a consequence of life history differences. Rock ptarmigan, with a slower life history, are more responsive to demographic rates that influence survival and older life stages but this response is tempered by the extent of variability in each of the rates. Thus, predictions need to consider both aspects in modeling population response to a varying climate. Juvenile survival was a highly influential rate for both species, but the period from independence to first breeding is a poorly understood stage for many bird species. Additional study on juvenile survival, the influence of density dependence and the effects of predators as the mechanism driving survival-reproduction tradeoffs are all areas requiring further study.
Highlights
The life history strategy of a species can influence how populations of that species respond to environmental variation
Deterministic model results Over the 5-year study, asymptotic population growth rate of rock ptarmigan was approximately stable at λ = 1.013, while for white-tailed ptarmigan it was lower at λ = 0.957 (Table 1)
The stable age distribution indicated that after-second year (ASY) females were the dominant age class for rock ptarmigan (61%), while white-tailed ptarmigan had a lower proportion of ASY females (45%)
Summary
The life history strategy of a species can influence how populations of that species respond to environmental variation. We used a matrix modeling approach to examine how life history differences among sympatric rock and white-tailed ptarmigan affect the influence of demographic rates on population growth (λ) and the potential response to a changing climate. Rock ptarmigan have a slower life history strategy than white-tailed ptarmigan in the study region with lower annual reproductive effort but higher adult survival. Climate change is expected to result in higher mean temperatures and greater annual variability in weather for many regions of North America [1]. Saltz et al [11] used matrix models to show how a predicted increase in the variability of precipitation might lead to greater fluctuations in population size and a higher extinction risk for Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) in Israel (see Hilderbrand et al [12])
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