Abstract
The magnitude and causes of changes in the land surface temperature of rural areas have not been extensively studied. The thermal band of Landsat imagery is taken to extract winter, summer, and monsoon season land surface temperature (LST) and relate it to surface parameters over a 30-year period. From the extracted parameters constructed a prospective surface temperature (PST) model using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. The Chandrabhaga river basin in West Bengal of the lateritic Rarh Tract at the Chota Nagpur Plateau fringe was chosen as the study area because it is far from urban influences, to avoid the well-known heat island effect. Over the study period, summer and winter average LST increased linearly by 0.085 °C/y and 0.016 °C/y respectively. These results were validated with air temperature (RMSE = x and y, respectively). Over time more of the area is in the higher temperature zones, e.g., in April 2011, 4% area exceeded >32°, whereas in 2015 this proportion reached 52%. PST models of all the seasons were moderate to highly correlate (0.57–0.87) with actual LST, showing the value of this model. It also revealed the relative importance of the regional factors. Based on this information factor management is a scientific step to restrict or minimize the temperature rise effect.
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