Influence of invasive quagga mussels, phosphorus loads, and climate on spatial and temporal patterns of productivity in Lake Michigan: A biophysical modeling study

Abstract

AbstractWe applied a three‐dimensional biophysical model to Lake Michigan for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010 to consider the mechanisms controlling spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton abundance (chlorophyll a) and lake‐wide productivity. Model skill was assessed by comparison to satellite‐derived Chl a and field‐measured water quality variables. We evaluated model sensitivity to scenarios of varying mussel filter feeding intensity, tributary phosphorus loads, and warm vs. cool winter‐spring climate scenarios. During the winter‐spring phytoplankton bloom, spatial patterns of Chl a were controlled by variables that influenced surface mixed layer depth: deep mixing reduced net phytoplankton growth through light limitation and by exposing the full water column to mussel filter feeding. Onset of summer and winter stratification promoted higher surface Chl a initially by increasing mean light exposure and by separating the euphotic zone from mussels. During the summer stratified period, areas of relatively high Chl a were associated with coastal plumes influenced by tributary‐derived nutrients and coastal upwelling‐downwelling. While mussels influenced spatial and temporal distribution of Chl a, lake‐wide, annual mean primary production was more sensitive to phosphorus and warm/cool meteorology scenarios than to mussel filter feeding scenarios. Although Chl a and primary production declined over the quagga mussel invasion, our results suggest that increased nutrient loads would increase lake‐wide productivity even in the presence of mussels; however, altered spatial and temporal patterns of productivity caused by mussel filter feeding would likely persist.