Influence of Industrialization and Urbanization on China’s Energy Consumption

Abstract

By taking energy consumption as the dependent variable, urbanization and industrialization and energy prices as independent variables, a model of multivariate linear regression is built to estimate the influence of urbanization and industrialization on energy consumption. The results show that GDP, proportion of industrial added value in GDP, and the proportion of urban residents will increase China's energy consumption; the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP will reduce the energy consumption; and there is a negative time trend of energy consumption because of the influence of technological progress and energy policy. China’s energy consumption in 2015 is predicted by the regression equation with some goals of urbanization and industrialization in the 12th Five-Year Plan of China. The prediction shows that energy consumption will maintain an average growth rate of about 6% during the period of 12th Five-Year. At last, China’s energy policies are analyzed from the industrial structure, energy price and energy saving technology and so on according to the results of linear regression model.