Influence of increasing temperature on the scorpion sting incidence by climatic regions

Abstract

ABSTRACTScorpion stings are a major public health concern representing a frequent cause of intoxication in many countries. The present study aims to examine the impact of climate variability in different climatic regions of the state of Morelos in Mexico on the incidence of scorpion stings. An ecological study was conducted using a retrospective time‐series analysis. Weekly reported scorpion sting cases from the Unique System of Information for Epidemiological Surveillance (SUIVE) and daily temperature and precipitation from the National Meteorological Service were obtained from 1999 to 2007. The geographical region of study was divided according three climatic conditions into Hot region (HR), Warm region (WR) and Cold region (CR). Generalized Linear Models were used to estimate the percent change [95% confidence intervals (CI)] of scorpion sting cases associated to an increase of 1 °C of temperature and 1 cm of precipitation in each climatic region. During the period of study there were 281 076 scorpion sting cases reported in the State of Morelos, Mexico. Positive correlations among temperature and scorpion sting cases were found (R = 0.59 and 0.70 in the HR and WR, respectively). Regions with the hottest temperatures had the greatest effect, showing a 9.8% (CI 95%: 8.30–11.30) increase in scorpion sting cases per 1 °C increased in temperature. Increase in minimum and maximum temperatures have a delayed effect on scorpion stings cases and these may vary by climatic region.