Influence of Grid Resolution and Assimilation Window Size on Simulating Storm Surge Levels

Abstract

Grid resolution and assimilation window size play significant roles in storm surge models. In the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea, the influence of grid resolution and assimilation window size on simulating storm surge levels was investigated during Typhoon 7203. In order to employ a more realistic wind stress drag coefficient that varies with time and space, we corrected the storm surge model using the spatial distribution of the wind stress drag coefficient, which was inverted using the data assimilation method based on the linear expression Cd = (a + b × U10) × 10−3. Initially, two grid resolutions of 5′ × 5′ and 10′ × 10′ were applied to the numerical storm surge model and adjoint assimilation model. It was found that the influence of different grid resolutions on the numerical model is almost negligible. But in the adjoint assimilation model, the root mean square (RMS) errors between the simulated and observed storm surge levels under 5′ × 5′ and 10′ × 10′ grid resolutions were 11.6 cm and 15.6 cm, and the average PCC and WSS values for 10 tidal stations changed from 89% and 92% in E3 to 93% and 96% in E4, respectively. The results indicate that the finer grid resolution can yield a closer consistency between the simulation and observations. Subsequently, the effects of assimilation window sizes of 6 h, 3 h, 2 h, and 1 h on simulated storm surge levels were evaluated in an adjoint assimilation model with a 5′ × 5′ grid resolution. The results show that the average RMS errors were 11.6 cm, 10.6 cm, 9.6 cm, and 9.3 cm under four assimilation window sizes. In particular, the RMS errors for the assimilation window sizes of 1 h and 6 h at RuShan station were 3.9 cm and 10.2 cm, a reduction of 61.76%. The PCC and WSS values from RuShan station in E4 and E7 separately showed significant increases, from 85% to 98% and from 92% to 99%. These results demonstrate that when the assimilation window size is smaller, the simulated storm surge level is closer to the observation. Further, the results show that the simulated storm surge levels are closer to the observation when using the wind stress drag coefficient with a finer grid resolution and smaller temporal resolution.