Influence of filling–drawdown cycles of the Vajont reservoir on Mt. Toc slope stability

Abstract

In the present work, the 1963 Vajont landslide has been back-analyzed in detail to examine the influence of reservoir operations (filling and drawdown) on Mt. Toc slope stability. The combined seepage–slope stability analyses carried out show that the main destabilizing factor that favored the 1963 Vajont landslide was the reservoir-induced water table that formed as a consequence of rapid seepage inflow within the submerged toe of the slope — decrease in the factor of safety (FOS) up to 12% compared to the initial slope stability condition, i.e., in the absence of the Vajont reservoir. Rainfall would only have been a decisive factor if the initial stability condition of the Mt. Toc slope had already been very close to failure (decrease in FOS caused by heavy or prolonged rainfall is about 3–4%, for the worst case scenario analyzed). The permeability of the shear zone material occurring at the base of the prehistoric Vajont rockslide has been evaluated at 5×10−4m/s, and back-calculated values of the friction angles Φ range from 17.5° to 27.5°. When considering mountain reservoirs, slope failures can occur during both filling and drawdown phases. In the Vajont case, owing to the highly permeable materials of the shear zone, slope stability decreased during filling and increased during drawdown. Another displacement-dependent phenomenon of a mechanical nature – progressive failure of the NE landslide constraint – has to be considered to understand the slope collapse that occurred during the last drawdown (26 September–9 October 1963). The results of the combined seepage–slope stability models indicate that permeability of bank-forming material and filling–drawdown rates of reservoirs can strongly influence slope stability. Slow lowering of the reservoir level is a necessary measure to reduce the occurrence of very dangerous transient negative peaks of FOS.