Influence of design data availability on the accuracy of physical photovoltaic power forecasts

Abstract

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts are essential for the grid integration of the technology. Most solar forecasting studies deal only with solar irradiance forecasting, which highlights the importance of the irradiance to power conversion methods to enable the practical utilization of the advanced irradiance forecasting techniques. The PV power output is commonly calculated with physical model chains that rely on the main design parameters of the PV plants. This study presents an analysis of how the unavailability or uncertain knowledge of the design parameters affects the physical power forecast accuracy. The analysis is performed by verifying the power forecasts created by the bests of 32,400 model chains for 16 PV plants in Hungary for five data availability scenarios based on numerical weather prediction data. The results show that even though the knowledge of all relevant design parameters ensures the lowers errors, the critical parameters are only the nameplate capacities and the module orientation. The increase in mean absolute error and root mean square error is only 1.3% and 0.5%, respectively, if only these crucial parameters are known compared to the baseline scenario. If necessary, the tilt and azimuth angles can also be inferred, where the resulting inaccuracy depends on the estimation errors. The results reveal that the physical model chains can be used with a decent accuracy for power forecast calculations even if the design parameters are unknown, which highly broadens the applicability of the physical method.