Abstract
Knowledge on the impact of climate variability on the decadal timescale is important for policy makers and planners in order for them to make decisions in a range of sectors, including agriculture, water resources, energy, and infrastructure. This study estimates the effects of the ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) on growing degree day, precipitation, and drought in the crop-growing seasons of major crops in the United States. The empirical results illustrate that DCV phase combinations are associated with variations in growing degree day, precipitation, and drought across the country using county-level data from 1950 to 2015. There are spatially-differentiated effects on the climate of major production areas of corn, soybeans, and wheat. The annual oscillations in growing degree day, precipitation, and drought reach extreme severity in some DCV scenarios. The results would facilitate the adoption of coping mechanisms with the potential to develop climate risk resiliency for agricultural planning and policy.
Highlights
Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) involves persistent ocean-related phenomena existing on at least interdecadal timescales [1,2,3,4,5]
The findings suggested that the DCV phenomena are associated with the changes in growing degree day, precipitation, and drought across the United States
This section starts with stylized facts for distributional characteristics of growing degree day, precipitation, and drought in the crop-growing seasons in the United States
Summary
Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) involves persistent ocean-related phenomena existing on at least interdecadal timescales [1,2,3,4,5]. Three forms of DCV are prominent: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [6,7,8,9,10], the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Gradient (TAG) [1], and the Western. Pacific Warm Pool Sea Surface Temperature (WPWP) [2,11,12]. Their main findings have been that the major ocean long-run temperature patterns have been associated with multiyear to multidecadal droughts in addition to changes in precipitation patterns. The PDO is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that is characterized by two phases: warm and cold. Their phases are identified based on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific. The PDO influences weather through mechanisms of heat transfer between the Pacific
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