Abstract
The objective of this study was to analyze the influence of large-scale atmospheric–oceanic mechanisms (El Niño–Southern Oscillation—ENSO and the inter-hemispheric thermal gradient of the Tropical Atlantic) on the spatial–temporal variability of soy yield in MATOPIBA. The following, available in the literature, were used: (i) daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2013 (Xavier et al., 2016); (ii) (chemical, physical, and hydric) properties of the predominant soil class in the area of interest, available at the World Inventory of Soil Emission Potentials platform; (iii) genetic coefficients of soybean cultivar with Relative Maturity Group adapted to the conditions of the region. The simulations were performed using the CROPGRO-Soybean culture model of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) system, considering sowing dates between the months of October and December of 33 agricultural years, as well as for three meteorological scenarios (climatology, favorable-wet, and unfavorable-dry). Results showed that the different climate scenarios can alter the spatial patterns of agricultural risk. In the favorable-wet scenario, there was a greater probability of an increase in yield and a greater favorable window for sowing soybean, while in the unfavorable-dry scenario these values were lower. However, considering the unfavorable-dry scenario, in some areas the reduction in yield losses will depend on the chosen planting date.
Highlights
Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) is the main rainfed crop that can be cultivated in a wide range of latitudes [1]
The results obtained in this study show that large-scale atmospheric–oceanic mechanisms in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans play a fundamental role in the alternation between dry and wet years over the MATOPIBA region, as well as in the spatial coverage of drought, which is in agreement with recent analyses [105]
The maximum values observed in these months during dry years are possibly associated with extreme rainfall events in Northeast Brazil and in the Cerrado areas, which have been documented in recent studies [106,107]
Summary
Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) is the main rainfed crop that can be cultivated in a wide range of latitudes [1]. The soybean has gained great importance in the global market and has become an important agricultural commodity due to the increase in its consumption as a staple food. This increase has been greatly induced by the growing global demand for food [2]. Soy has been used for thousands of years. In Western countries, it was introduced about a hundred years ago and has recently been used mainly for the production of substitute foods in vegetarian diets (meat analogues and milk replacers), due to its high protein content [3]. To meet the Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1130; doi:10.3390/atmos11101130 www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere
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