Influence of climate change on low flow conditions. Case study: Laborec River, eastern Slovakia

Abstract

The paper deals with the long-term and seasonal variability of low flows using the example of a mountain river. The study covers the Laborec River in the eastern part of Slovakia, and the main aim of the research is to identify and establish long-term fluctuations of low flows on this river. The analysis aims to indicate trends of low flows and seasonal variability of outflows based on various measures and research methods as well as the links between them. Basic data on daily flow and precipitation series were collected from 1980 to 2019. Low flow periods were identified in relation to the fitting of the threshold level method to the 70th and 95th percentile on the flow duration curve as a constant, multi-annual cut-off (Q70%, Q95%). The longest lasting flows were those below q70%, which were determined in the shallow cut-offs that occurred for most of the year, i.e. from June to December and in January. The greatest culmination of flows below q95% was in August and September. The range of minimal unit outflow is the smallest in the summer-autumn period and results from long periods without precipitation and with increased evapotranspiration. The highest range of unit outflow was recorded from December to April. Knowledge of low river flows should be one of the important elements of advanced planning, which in the future may help to reduce conflicts between water users during the peak demand period.