Influence of climate change on biotropic weather effects and human health in Germany

Abstract

Biometeorological studies have clearly shown the influence of specific weather patterns (in particular distinct weather changes) on human health and on physical and mental disorders in sensitive individuals. Climate change may lead to even more distinct and rapid weather changes, which could contribute to an enhanced biotropic exposure of the human organism. In the framework of the German Adaption Strategy to climate change, the project “Climate change, bioclimatology and health effects” (funded by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety) aims at, firstly, bringing together the actual knowledge about weather sensitivity and weather-related diseases and, secondly, studying the influence of climate change on weather effects regarding human health. To reach the first goal, a systematic literature review on the influence of meteorological parameters on human health was performed. Different data bases were searched for ongoing research of the last ten years (2002-2012) and more than 600 peer-reviewed articles were evaluated. The literature survey demonstrates that the influence of weather conditions on many diseases is well documented. Empirical evidence and proven mechanisms exist for both direct and indirect effects. Overall, the most important meteorological factor is the thermal environment. Extreme temperatures and rapid temperature changes enhance the prevalence and mortality of many diseases. To a minor degree, parameters such as pressure, humidity, and sunshine duration also exert unfavourable effects on human health. To assess future changes of meteorological parameters and of the frequency of biotropic weather regimes in Germany, simulations of regional climate models are evaluated. Preliminary results indicate that a future climate is characterised not only by less cold and more hot days, but also by stronger day-to-day fluctuations of temperature und air pressure, which points to intensified biotropic weather effects.