Influence of Climate and Land Use Change on the Groundwater System of the Veluwe, The Netherlands: A Historical and Future Perspective

Marjolein H J Van Huijgevoort,Sjoerd Rijpkema,Jan-Philip M Witte,Kelly H S Nijhuis,Bernard R Voortman

doi:10.3390/w12102866

Abstract

Changes in land use and climate have a large influence on groundwater recharge and levels. In The Netherlands, precipitation shifts from summer to winter are expected, combined with an increase in summer temperature leading to higher evaporation. These changes in climate could threaten the fresh water supply and increase the importance of large groundwater reservoirs. Sustainable management of these groundwater reservoirs, therefore, is crucial. Changes in land use could help mitigate the effects of climate change by decreasing the evaporation. In this study, we investigate the effect of changes in climate and land use on a large groundwater reservoir in The Netherlands, the Veluwe, for a historical period (1850–2016) and in the future (2036–2065). During the historical period, evaporation increased due to conversions from heather and drift sand to pine forest across the Veluwe. This change in land use had a larger effect on the groundwater recharge than change in climate over the historical period. In the future, an increase in winter precipitation will lead to higher groundwater levels in the elevated parts of the region. Surrounding areas are more vulnerable to an increase in dry periods in the summer. Groundwater reservoirs provide an opportunity to store water during wetter periods, which could alleviate drought impacts in surrounding regions during dry periods. Land use change, such as conversion from pine forest to other land use types, is a possible measure to increase water availability.

Highlights

Climate change will affect the availability of fresh water resources in the future (e.g., [1,2]) and will, have consequences for nature (e.g., [3]), agriculture (e.g., [4]), industry (e.g., [5]) and drinking water supply (e.g., [6])
Differences in evaporation between land use types are significant with an actual evaporation of 201 mm/year for drift sand [17], 430 mm/year for heather [18] and 630 mm/year for pine forest [15]
Average yearly actual evaporation for heather was slightly underestimated, with 361 mm/year compared to 430 mm/year in the literature [18], whereas evaporation from drift sands was overestimated by Hydrus with 380 mm/year compared to 201 mm/year in the literature [17]

Summary

Introduction

Climate change will affect the availability of fresh water resources in the future (e.g., [1,2]) and will, have consequences for nature (e.g., [3]), agriculture (e.g., [4]), industry (e.g., [5]) and drinking water supply (e.g., [6]). In The Netherlands, precipitation shifts from summer to winter are expected, combined with increased evaporation demands in summer due to higher temperatures [7]. This can lead to longer and more intense dry spells occurring more often across The Netherlands [7]. The vegetation, plays a critical role in groundwater recharge, where, for example, pine forest has a higher evaporation than heather [15,16]. Differences in evaporation between land use types are significant with an actual evaporation of 201 mm/year for drift sand [17], 430 mm/year for heather [18] and 630 mm/year for pine forest [15]. Decisions about land use could be important to mitigate climate change effects on groundwater reservoirs

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion