Abstract
Understanding the local factors influencing the transmission of communicable diseases is important to minimize social damage. The aim of this study was to investigate local factors influencing seasonal influenza epidemics in Aomori prefecture consisting of 6 regions, i.e., Seihoku, Chunan, and Tosei on the west side, and Sanpachi, Kamikita, and Shimokita on the east side. Four indices (epidemic onset, duration, scale, and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and their correlations with regional characteristics and meteorological factors were investigated. Data for influenza seasons from 2006-2007 to 2014-2015 were collected. The 2009-2010 season was excluded because of the pandemic of A (H1N1)pdm09. Average income was strongly correlated with epidemic onset, duration, and scale. The ratio of children aged ≤5 years to the total population was strongly correlated with epidemic duration and scale. Low temperature in January showed moderate correlation with epidemic duration and scale. Cluster analysis showed that 2 isolated regions, Seihoku and Chunan, belonged to the same cluster in the 4 indices of epidemic curves, and other 2 relatively urbanized regions formed another cluster in 3 of the 4 indices. This study highlights important local factors that influence seasonal influenza epidemics and may help in implementation of preventive measures.
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