Influence of atmospheric static stability and meridional temperature gradient on the growth in amplitude of synoptic-scale unstable waves

Abstract

Observations and results of numerical experiments with climate models under different green-house-gas emission scenarios point to a reconstruction of the thermal and circulation atmospheric regime induced by global climate changes. In particular, an increase in atmospheric static stability, a poleward shift of midlatitude storm tracks, a decrease in the frequency of extratropical cyclones, and a change in their intensity are found at tropical and middle latitudes. This paper, using a simplified idealized model of baroclinic instability, investigates the influence of small variations in the basic atmospheric parameters governing the development of baroclinic instability, namely, static stability and the vertical quasi-zonal flow velocity shear induced by a meridional temperature gradient, on variations in the growth rate of the amplitude of synopticscale unstable waves. Analytical expressions are derived for absolute and relative sensitivity functions to estimate the absolute and relative contribution of variations in the static stability and the vertical flow velocity shear to a change in the growth rate of the amplitude of unstable modes.