Influence of a priori profiles on trend calculations from Umkehr data

Abstract

Although the new (1992) ozone profile retrieval algorithm for Umkehr measurements provides much better agreement with ozone sounding results than the old (1964) algorithm, considerable discrepancies remain with respect to ozone trends at different levels in the atmosphere. These discrepancies have been found by the comparison of long‐term trends obtained from the Umkehr measurements at Arosa and the ozone balloon soundings at Payerne (Switzerland). It is investigated here whether these obvious discrepancies can be removed by using time‐dependent a priori profiles. This procedure is successful only in the lowest part of the atmosphere, below about 19 km. To further explore this problem, synthetic Umkehr observations are calculated from the ozonesonde profiles. Trends are calculated for both the synthetic and actual Umkehr observations. The difference pattern between these Umkehr observation trends is compared with the difference in ozone profile retrieval trends from the synthetic and actual observations. The distinctive difference patterns strongly indicate an inherent disagreement between the Umkehr observations and the ozonesonde profiles. The application of corrections for stratospheric aerosol effects to the Umkehr profiles reduces, but does not eliminate, a discrepancy above 32 km. It is concluded that the discrepancies are due to the constant mixing ratio assumption used in computing the residual ozone above balloon burst level and to the fair‐weather bias of Umkehr observations (there are Umkehr observations at Arosa on fewer than 20% of the sonde observation days at Payerne). This sampling difference influences the results for the lower stratosphere. The study furthermore indicates that the ozone trends derived from Umkehr measurements for altitudes above about 32 km are robust for time‐dependent changes in the a priori profiles at lower altitudes. Based on the results of this study, we conclude with revised recommendations as to which atmospheric layers should be used for Umkehr trend studies.