Inflation Targeting in Uganda

Abstract

The Bank of Uganda introduced an inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy framework in 2011, replacing a decades-old money targeting framework. This chapter reviews Uganda’s experience and concludes that an IT framework is feasible for Uganda, despite shallow financial markets, volatile exchange rates, supply price shocks which make inflation more volatile and difficult to forecast, and lack of data. Key prerequisites were the operational independence of the central bank and the primacy of the core inflation objective for monetary policy. The successful adoption of IT in Uganda depended on the adoption of a set of basic principles, including: the primacy of the inflation forecast in setting policy; the separation of monetary from fiscal operations; the adoption of a short-term interest rate as the sole operating target, rather than e.g. a mix of interest rates and monetary aggregates; and an emphasis on clear communications.