Abstract

The financial decision of economic individuals is sensitive to present and future forecasting rate of inflation. This study aims to forecast the inflation of four countries (India, Pakistan, Sri-Lanka and Bangladesh) in SAARC region. Data sample ranges from 1981 to 2016 with the objective to forecast the inflation for the next five years from 2017 to 2021, ARIMA (p,d,q) model is applied for the purpose of forecasting. Results show that inflation of each country will have the increasing trend the next five years from 2017 to 2021 but will remain less than the average inflation rate in the previous years (1981 to 2016) in all forecast economies of SAARC region.

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