Inflation Expectations in Poland, 2001-2013 Measurement and Macroeconomic Testing

Abstract

This paper presents survey-based direct measures of inflation expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts in Poland. It then goes on to provide the results of testing those features of inflation expectations that seem the most important from the point of view of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. The study is the revised version of the NBP Working Paper no. 115 [Lyziak (2012)]. It uses new measures of consumer inflation expectations and covers the updated sample (2001-2013). Characteristics of inflation expectations in Poland are diversified across the analyzed groups of economic agents. Inflation expectations of financial sector analysts and enterprises outperform those of consumers in terms of their accuracy and information content, although consumer inflation expectations are also to some extent forward-looking.